Markets finished the 4th quarter up another 2.5% and the S&P 500 finished the year with a gain of nearly 18%. Although we faced a historic decline following the introduction of tariffs, markets quickly rebounded in April and never looked back. The technology trade and AI buildout continued to dominate returns and stocks feel like they are on stable ground with overall earnings increasing by around 10%.. Click HERE to read more of our fourth quarter newsletter.
Despite a wall of worry, stocks continued their upward climb in the 3rd quarter and the S&P 500 has returned over 14% for the year despite being down by 15% in early April. This recovery has been one of the strongest and fastest on record. As a result, many investors are now worrying if this is too much of a good thing. Despite the worries, the economy has been resilient, jobs are slowing but not plummeting, and inflation continues to cool despite tariffs. The Fed began lowering rates again in September and that backdrop is typically a tailwind for risk asset. Click HERE to read more of our third quarter newsletter.
The stock market entered the second quarter down about 8% from all-time highs and then on April 2nd (Liberation Day), the Trump Administration announced an unprecedented level of tariffs on countries around the world, triggering a sharp market selloff. Please click here to continue reading our second quarter newsletter.
Markets faced significant headwinds in the first quarter as the S&P 500 fell 10% from its February high and ended the quarter down 4.6%. Tariff fears and the unwinding of the Tech AI trade were the two primary catalysts for the volatility. Markets hate uncertainty and as Mr. Barkin states above, we are looking into a dense fog with some of the new regime policies. Click here to read more of our our quarterly newsletter.
Markets finished the 4th quarter with more upside and the S&P 500 gained 25% on the year. Along the way, there were 57 record closes as inflation continued its descent, the Fed started lowering rates, and AI lifted the big tech stocks to lofty levels. These are the best performing back-to-back years for the stock market since 1998.
The Dow (DJIA) returned 16% and the Nasdaq increased by 25%. Although the major indices performed quite well, the returns were extremely concentrated. The Magnificent Seven (large technology stocks) accounted for more than 53% of the S&P 500’s total return and Nvidia alone made up 21% of the return. Click 2025 Outlook to read more of our Newsletter.
Despite wars, hurricanes and a contentious election, the market continues its historic rise, consistently hovering around all-time highs. Click here to read Newsletter.