Despite a wall of worry, stocks continued their upward climb in the 3rd quarter and the S&P 500 has returned over 14% for the year despite being down by 15% in early April. This recovery has been one of the strongest and fastest on record. As a result, many investors are now worrying if this is too much of a good thing. Despite the worries, the economy has been resilient, jobs are slowing but not plummeting, and inflation continues to cool despite tariffs. The Fed began lowering rates again in September and that backdrop is typically a tailwind for risk asset. Click HERE to read more of our third quarter newsletter.
Are We in a Bubble?
Recent post
-
The second quarter delivered a dramatic reversal from the war fears that gripped markets in Q1. The S&P 500 rallied nearly 15% during the quarter, its largest quarterly rally since the 2020 post-pandemic rebound, as the war premium unwound. The June Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran partially reopened the Strait of Hormuz,…
-
US stocks just completed their worst quarter in four years. Outlooks were rosy to start the year, with growth accelerating, the Federal Reserve poised to reduce rates, and markets shaking off tariff uncertainty. Seemingly out of nowhere came the war with Iran, which caused oil prices to rise 63% and a corresponding drop in most…
-
Markets finished the 4th quarter up another 2.5% and the S&P 500 finished the year with a gain of nearly 18%. Although we faced a historic decline following the introduction of tariffs, markets quickly rebounded in April and never looked back. The technology trade and AI buildout continued to dominate returns and stocks feel like…