Navigating 2025

Markets finished the 4th quarter with more upside and the S&P 500 gained 25% on the year. Along the way, there were 57 record closes as inflation continued its descent, the Fed started lowering rates, and AI lifted the big tech stocks to lofty levels. These are the best performing back-to-back years for the stock market since 1998.

The Dow (DJIA) returned 16% and the Nasdaq increased by 25%. Although the major indices performed quite well, the returns were extremely concentrated. The Magnificent Seven (large technology stocks) accounted for more than 53% of the S&P 500’s total return and Nvidia alone made up 21% of the return. Click 2025 Outlook to read more of our Newsletter.

Recent post

  • AI Trumps Iran

    The second quarter delivered a dramatic reversal from the war fears that gripped markets in Q1. The S&P 500 rallied nearly 15% during the quarter, its largest quarterly rally since the 2020 post-pandemic rebound, as the war premium unwound. The June Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran partially reopened the Strait of Hormuz,…

  • War Tax

    US stocks just completed their worst quarter in four years. Outlooks were rosy to start the year, with growth accelerating, the Federal Reserve poised to reduce rates, and markets shaking off tariff uncertainty. Seemingly out of nowhere came the war with Iran, which caused oil prices to rise 63% and a corresponding drop in most…

  • 2026 Outlook

    Markets finished the 4th quarter up another 2.5% and the S&P 500 finished the year with a gain of nearly 18%. Although we faced a historic decline following the introduction of tariffs, markets quickly rebounded in April and never looked back. The technology trade and AI buildout continued to dominate returns and stocks feel like…