by Neil Gilliss, MBA, CFP | Jan 18, 2022 | Newsletters
Despite some end of year volatility, major indices rallied during the 4th quarter, with the S&P 500 up 11% and the Dow up 8%. For the full year, the S&P 500 was once again the best performer of the major world indices, returning 26.9% and recording 70 new record highs, the most since 1955. This was the third straight year of double-digit returns. The markets were once again driven by earnings growth. Heading into 2021, the market consensus was for year over year earnings growth of 22%. Incredibly, actual earnings grew 65% year over year, the largest upward revision since this data has been tracked starting in 1984. Record inflows into equity funds and a resurgence in stock buybacks also helped major U.S. indices.
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by Neil Gilliss, MBA, CFP | Oct 19, 2021 | Financial Planning, Newsletters
The 3rd quarter managed a slim profit despite a pullback of over 5% from the market high on September 2nd. Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, have returned nearly 15% through the first three quarters of the year. We went 211 trading days without a 5% correction, which is the 13th longest streak on record. Historically, these streaks have been positive, as 11 of the 12 streaks longer than the most recent one continued their positive trends over time. Despite great returns year to date and a trend that should remain positive, we are seeing a wall of worry not experienced since the depths of COVID-19 in 2020.
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by Neil Gilliss, MBA, CFP | Jan 20, 2021 | Financial Planning, Newsletters
We spent many hours at the end of 2019 trying to figure out what could derail one of the greatest markets in history. Most investors’ biggest concern going into 2020 was the upcoming election and what a potential change in Washington leadership would mean for the markets. Of course, no one predicted a global pandemic causing a global recession. Fortunately, it was the shortest recession and fastest market recovery in history. Please click HERE to continue reading our 4th Quarter Newsletter.
by Neil Gilliss, MBA, CFP | Oct 20, 2020 | Financial Planning, Newsletters
The COVID-19 crisis has resulted in the deepest downturn in global economic activity in the post-war era, but almost certainly the shortest recession. US stocks have rebounded over 50% since the March 23rd lows and the S&P 500 is now up over 5% through three quarters. Historically, the 4th quarter is the strongest quarter of the year, but there are some potential headwinds going into year-end. The largest concerns that we are hearing from clients surround the election and what it will mean for their investments. Please click here to continue reading our 3rd Quarter Newsletter.
by Neil Gilliss, MBA, CFP | Oct 22, 2019 | Investments, Newsletters
As investors continue to grapple with the near-term issues impacting global markets, we believe there is disruptive innovation happening simultaneously and could be the transformative innovation platforms that can drive the economy out of a potential recession and power growth for many years in the future. The key areas are (Source: Ark Investments):
- Artificial Intelligence
- Robotics
- Energy Storage
- DNA Sequencing
- Blockchain
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by Neil Gilliss, MBA, CFP | Aug 21, 2019 | Investments, Newsletters
On August 14th, the 10 year Treasury Yield went slightly below the yield for the 2 year Treasury, the first time this has happened since 2007. Economist pay close attention to the 10 year vs. 2 year Treasury yields, as its historically been a strong predictor that a downturn is on the way. The yield curve has inverted before every US recession since 1955, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts. The average time between the last 5 yield curve inversions and a recession was 17 months. This lead time is the key and its still very uncertain how long a lead time we may have in the current economy before there is an actual recession. That said, an inverted yield curve, like most other indicators, is not perfect and doesn’t mean a recession is imminent.
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