On August 14th, the 10 year Treasury Yield went slightly below the yield for the 2 year Treasury, the first time this has happened since 2007. Economist pay close attention to the 10 year vs. 2 year Treasury yields, as its historically been a strong predictor that a downturn is on the way. The yield curve has inverted before every US recession since 1955, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts. The average time between the last 5 yield curve inversions and a recession was 17 months. This lead time is the key and its still very uncertain how long a lead time we may have in the current economy before there is an actual recession. That said, an inverted yield curve, like most other indicators, is not perfect and doesn’t mean a recession is imminent.
Despite what some people may say, no one really knows the exact reason as to why the market has pulled back so ferociously, but what we do know is that in any given year, the market normally has 3 drops of over 5%. This is the 2nd drop this year after zero in 2017. In other words the market generally goes up over time, but can take a step back or two at any moment. That said, markets tend to move in cycles and we must be cognizant of where we are because, as cycles get longer, pullbacks tend to become more frequent and more severe.
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” -Mike Tyson
While we are bullish in the short term, we remain cognizant of where we are in the cycle and are preparing ourselves for what a down market may bring. Having a plan in place beforehand helps control emotions and ultimately leads to better investment decisions. In this latest newsletter, we’ve taken a look back at this past quarter, some of the things that are causing the choppiness in the market: tariff talks and rising interest rates, and how we are preparing for a more volatile market environment.
Successful investing is often determined by one’s ability to stay the course. Since 2009, investors have had every excuse to bail out of stocks, but the market has continued to climb a wall of worry, becoming one of the longest bull markets in history. In fact, since March of ’09, the S&P 500 is up 290%. By historic measures, this market has lasted 108 months vs 54 months for the average bull market. The question becomes: Where are we now? In our humble opinion, we are probably pretty deep into the 4th quarter and might go into overtime.
Despite the lingering uncertainty and questions related to global policy: Legislative, Monetary (the Fed) and Foreign, the market has continued to grind higher, further strengthening the argument that despite the negative and uneasy sentiment, markets and global economies are actually quite healthy. For the first time in a while we are seeing global economies growing in sync (See Chart) and this backdrop has provided healthy returns for just about every stock market around the world in 2017.
The first half of the year delivered superior returns for the US Stock Market as measured by the S&P 500 (+9.3%), but as we entered into the doldrums of Summer, that torrid pace slowed down considerably. June was a relatively flat month and the first few weeks of July have looked similar. While a strong first half typically follows with a strong second half (See Chart), a summer pullback or continued consolidation would be healthy. That said, as we look to the chart once again, the trend is our friend and as we’ve learned throughout the years, you don’t fight it.
